In 1983, Return of the Jedi, not adjusted for inflation, made more money over Memorial Day weekend than either potential winner this weekend.
The early box office results are in over at Deadline, and oh boy, are they dire or what? As of right now, George Miller’s Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga seems poised to win the weekend by a razor’s edge, with it on track for a three-day gross in the range of $27-28 million and about $31 million for the four-day Memorial Day weekend. The Garfield Movie is right behind with $24 million, with Deadline predicting that it could theoretically win the four-day weekend thanks to matinees on Monday. It is set to make $30-32 million over the holiday. We had predicted $40 million for Furiosa and $35 million for Garfield.
It has to be said, the box office take this Memorial Day weekend is an all-out disaster. How bad is it? Whichever movie wins, Furiosa or The Garfield Movie, the winner will have the lowest Memorial Day gross for a movie in first place since 1983’s Return of the Jedi (not counting 2020’s Covid-riddled box office, which didn’t have any new movies opening). That movie made $30.5 million in 1983 dollars. By comparison, everyone called Solo: A Star Wars Story a flop when it opened to “only” $103 million over Memorial Day in 2018. My, how times have changed. Furiosa’s box office opening is even worse than The Fall Guy’s. What a disaster and a depressing look at the state of film exhibition as we know it.
The fact is, Furiosa is a GREAT movie that begs to be seen on the big screen, but people aren’t buying it. Word-of-mouth could work similarly to Fury Road and propel it to a $100 million finish (which is unlikely), but even that would be considered pretty bad, given how expensive it is ($160 million +). Hopefully, worldwide grosses will ensure it turns a profit, as we really need Miller to make Mad Max: The Wasteland, don’t we?
The only shred of good news at the box office this weekend is that John Krasinski’s IF, which kinda-sorta bombed last weekend, is showing tremendous staying power, with it only dipping a modest 50% thanks to that A CinemaScore. This may yet turn out to be a (modest) sleeper hit.
Why do you think people are staying away from movie theaters this summer? Is it the product? Or are people no longer into the theatrical experience? Let us know in the comments.